Evaluating climate change impacts on mortality, life insurance, and annuities

Abstract

Given the increasing frequency of extremely high temperature events due to global warming, life insurers need to incorporate temperature impacts in their mortality models and long-term liability valuations. Current actuarial literature, primarily using monthly or annual data, inadequately captures the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature on mortality. To address this, we examine the relationship between weekly deaths and daily mean temperatures using the distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) from environmental epidemiology, where we extend to projecting mortality rates and considering age-specific temperature impacts. These extensions better accommodate actuarial needs for single-..